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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

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